By
Basildon Peta & Peta Thornycroft
As a draft agreement between South
Africa and Zimbabwe on a R6-billion rescue package gathers dust on President
Robert Mugabe's desk, Zimbabwe's stock exchange failed to trade for the third
trading day in a row on Monday because there are no buyers for the deluge of
shares on offer.
Finance Minister Herbert Murerwa
announced a 10 percent capital gains tax on traded shares in a supplementary
budget on Thursday, up by 7,5 percent. Stockbrokers estimated they would have to
sell three trillion shares to cover the new tax.
Meanwhile, an International
Monetary Fund delegation is in Zimbabwe for meetings with the government and
private sector ahead of its executive board meeting on September 9 when
Zimbabwe's expulsion will be considered.
There
is particular interest in the IMF visit because no one in Zimbabwe is able to
say with any certainty whether South Africa has paid off some of Harare's debt
to the IMF of nearly $300-million (R1 965-million) to try to prevent expulsion.
The loan agreement was hammered out
between South African Finance Minister Trevor Manuel and Reserve Bank Governor
Tito Mboweni and their Zimbabwean counterparts Herbert Murerwa and Gideon Gono
nearly three weeks ago.
But the deal stalled when Murerwa
and Gono presented Mugabe with the draft agreement for approval. He is opposed
to some of the political conditions attached, particularly South Africa's call
for an all-inclusive process of constitutional reform.
The draft agreement has been drawn
up to avoid any mention of Mugabe's arch foe, the Movement for Democratic Change
(MDC) and its leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, authoritative sources say.
Impeccable Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe
(RBZ) sources say a sense of frustration has now gripped senior central bank
officials who have been working overnight to avoid Zimbabwe's expulsion.
The sources felt the deal with
South Africa, drawn up after the "agreement in principle" by President Thabo
Mbeki's cabinet to rescue Zimbabwe, offered the best prospects to avoid
expulsion.
But Mugabe has told Gono to keep
trying to raise loans from other countries such as China, Malaysia and Iran.
"It seems Mugabe does not care
whether or not we get expelled from the IMF," said one official in the RBZ.
"He does not think it (the IMF)
will resume lending money to Zimbabwe anyway, even if all arrears are liquidated
and expulsion avoided. He is keeping the institution out of the equation," added
the official.
Under the deal South Africa will
release $170-million (about R1 113-million) for payment to the IMF. The rest
will be released in tranches of $50-million (R327,5-million) to buy food and
fuel.
But everything is predicated on
Zimbabwe's acceptance of reforms leading to a new constitution in an
all-inclusive process, to measures to restore the rule of law by reviewing
draconian laws and to a new economic policy that does away with structural
distortions such as the use of dual exchange rates.
One senior government official
speculated that the arrival of the IMF mission could force Mugabe to act. It was
to be expected that the mission would issue yet another negative report on
Zimbabwe.
The sources say South Africa has
largely adopted a "the ball is in your court" attitude on the loan issue and is
waiting to hear from Zimbabwe authorities but Mugabe's prevarication has held up
things. Nevertheless, the sources say, Murerwa and Gono have not stopped
consultations with Manuel and Mboweni.
It is understood that they are
asking South Africa to release the initial tranche of the money regardless of
Mugabe's failure to accept the conditions. It is hoped this would persuade him
to change his attitude and agree to reforms before more aid is released.